Fig. 3

Accuracy Gains relative to Zero-Rule baseline. Performance of forecasting models after 1500 for each VEI data subset (see legend). Apparently missing bars have no accuracy gain relative to the zero-rule. (A) Accuracy gain of historied volcanoes relative to zero-rule baseline calculated based on the modal VEI for each dataset. Forecasting accuracy is estimated based on fivefold cross-validation. Small white numbers are the total number of volcanoes (N) in each dataset. (B) Accuracy gain relative to zero-rule baseline on the unhistoried volcanoes. This dataset cannot be used for attributes that demand a history of VEI, such as the simple statistical predictions